At the Sunset of 2008

2008 ends on a sad note. The world has plunged into recession . Maybe we can venture a bit further and say - Depression. But then world economy is at the end of the day nothing but money and employment. That is OK. As a rule, whatever goes up has to come down. So we will be back to normal in no time.

what is sad is the massacre of Gaza. I was reading an article in The Hindu today on how a father of age 47 was preparing the funeral of his 2 sons aged 18 and 25. And I think. What is the kind of grief should he be going through? what will happen to his New Year ? What about his plans, dreams, wishes he would have had for his family?

How can you pacify a father who would have spent the best part of his life raising his children filled with dreams and aspirations , only to be taken away by a missile ? what happens to the hard work he would have put for the past 30-40 years where he would have sacrificed a lot to see his kids happy? Why should the world be so cruel to a man who had nothing to do with geo-politics or militancy or terrorism ?

As a fellow human being , what answers do I have for him ? This tragedy was not by nature. If it was of nature's doing then there is no need for any justification. It was nature doing its work to bring balance. But then this monstrosity is man-made. I am as responsible for his sons death as the people sitting in Israel war cabinet deciding when and where to launch the next strike.

Can the US govt explain to me , why is Israel using bunker busting bombs ( the most non-nuclear bomb) in a city filled with civilians? It is not a battleground . Can the US govt tell me How can they call Iran, North Korea, Iraq as Axis of Evil when the nations who are indulged in the killing are the Us and its Allies? What logic and justification is there in killing innocents ? How can they snuff out the future of a child and yet call themselves victims of terrorism? Haven't you guys avenged enough for Sept 11?

I haven't come up with any resolutions yet. But I ask myself today. How can I devote my life so completely to someone and make that person happy no matter what happens around me ? To what extent can I go to sacrifice my happiness to keep others happy? How should I define such a life ?

Top 5 business news about India which you should have read but dint anyway...

I am a sucker for The Hindu and Business Line. I believe that they give us some of the finest and incisive writings/articles on news, politics, business and economics related to India.

Here is a list of 5 news articles which you should have read today but dint because you aint bothered and thought it is too cumbersome. Still, you should know what is happening around you, right ?

From The Hindu :

Article 1 :From U.S. sub-prime to global economic crisis

Reason you should read :

• It is the extension of my previous post "Is India still in recession?" .

• You get to read about the global financial outlook.

• You will get to know about news terms : Decoupling theory in economics and Current Account Surplus. In case you dint know what Decoupling theory is then allow me to oblige :

Decoupling theory( courtesy : world wide web) - "decoupling refers to the ability of an economy to grow without corresponding increases in environmental pressure. In many economies increasing production (GDP) would involve increased pressure on the environment. An economy that is able to sustain GDP growth, without also experiencing a worsening of environmental conditions, is said to be decoupled"

From Business Line :

Article 2 : RBI sells $20.6b in Oct

Reason to read :

You will know what is the funda behind Forex Reserves and why RBI buys dollars to curb inflation in the country

Article 3: Textile cos top distressed list for corporate debt recast

Reason to read :

• You will read about orgin and functions of Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) cell of India.

• Also try to infer from the article why Textile is most hit sector in the country today. You don't have to be an economist ..just use your logic.

Article 4 : Foreign Investors cannot afford to avoid India,says analysts.

Reason to read :

• The article's headline says for itself.. India growth story is still on track and things will turn positive soon.

• Also read to know why India cannot escape from the global economic crisis and yet stand firm without any major hiccups because India's low dependency on U.S for business and exports.
  

Article 5 : Welcome moves but room for more

Reason to read :

An good editorial on the Fiscal Stimulus Package

Did you know ?

• All countries put together have provided fiscal and monetary worth around $6 trillion (3 lac crore) - six times the size of India;s GDP ( you will read it in one of the article here).

• 25 US banks have gone bankrupt since the start of the year ?

So can you tell me how Indian banks have filed for bankruptcy? or even close to it? In fact, pvt and public sector banks like HDFC, Bank of India, Axis Bank, LIC are getting to go in for a hiring spree.. ( check yesterdays : Times of India)

You know what i would say at the end of this article ... India is not going into recession . India has very strong economic fundamentals , though it is reeked with corruption and problems with implementations.

The Big Bad US recession - where did Ivy league gards go?

Enough has been written,discussed, debated on the US recession, failure of I banks and now the assured bankruptcy of the world's top auto mobile companies.
Even India is feeling the heat of this recession . follow the Sensex if you don't know what I am saying ...

But correct me if I am wrong. the world's best I-bank's ( Freddie & Mae, AIG, Bear Stearns ) and Auto companies ( Ford, Chrysler, GM) hired from world's best Ivy B schools. right ? These grads from Harvard, Standard, MIT, IIM, IIT,Kellogg are considered the best minds in business and technology.

How come these guys didn't get a whiff of what's happening or what was about happen? I mean, look .. the stock market guys are like watching the NASDAQ 24x7, the US policy makers ( all having Goldman Sachs background) kept constant watch on the stats and trends everyday . at least, thats what they are supposed to do and supposed to be good at ..

So what went wrong? does that mean, all the best education the world can give, the best money can buy is for nothing ?

why ? The best answer is that while they made tons of money occupying their position , they simply failed to do the job.

I would rather do my management degree in a normal to decent college, get a respectable job , get a decent salary to lead a good simple life, keep my family safe and happy and do all that i can to the society and be happy forever.

what do you guys think ?

Dont forget the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project

The on going diplomatic war with Pakistan on the backdrop of the Mumbai terrorist attack (26.11.2008) has put the spotlight on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.

Many of my friends here actually have no clue what I am talking about . So let me put things in perspective .

So, what is the IPI pipeline all about ?

• The IPI pipeline is a 2,800 km overland pipeline carrying natural gas from Iran to India via Pakistan.
• The total cost involved is $7.5b , which would carry 22 bmc gas per annum , which would later be increased to 55 bmc per annum
• Currently India need 50 bmc per annum and would need 125 bmc per annum by 2025.

Now, what seems to be the problem? .... a lot actually

• Dispute in pricing - Iran wants $8 per million BTU . but India says "No go". India will not negotiate beyond $4 per million BTU.

• No Trade Treaty - There is no trilateral agreement between the countries like the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) which binds 51 European countries. A legal treaty will hold each country accountable in delivery and receiving of gas under a accepter framework.

• Uncle Sam is not ok - America as we know is completely against Iran and hence scorns at any bi-lateral trade between India and Iran.So any trade agreement, that too as high cost as this, will definitely under mine US strategic value in sub continent .

• Geo politics unrest - 1.The pipeline has to go through Baluchistan which is now caught in a civil war on its own. 2. The transit country ,Pakistan can cut supply to India in case there is conflict of war. And there is no legal bonding to stop Pakistan from doing so . why ? because while India recognizes Pak as one of its Most Favored Nation (MFN) in trade, it is not been reciprocated. 3. The gas transits charges with Pakistan has not been finalized yet. which means , Pak can squeeze the maximum out of the bargain and it can be changed anytime. Imagine what would happen if Pak demands higher transits fee after the pipeline is built and running for 6 months. India wont be in a position to negotiate . Because India is a energy hungry nation and oil/gas plays a big role .

what are the alternatives ?

Instead of the the proposed pipeline , India and Iran can go for a LNG delivery deal using sea route. It is of course expensive but it would be relatively safe and stable as both the parties are bound to each other. Since LNG market is more mature , there will be some sort of competition and hence pricing can be regulated to an acceptable number. Since LNG ships would go via transits routes( import and export ports) the transit money will be stable and accountable by the host countries.

India currently has one port in Dhaej and another one coming up in Kochi. A long term trade via sea will also help India develop its own supply route, logistics and technology.